EU Referendum

What effect do the different potential UK election outcomes have on the chances of an EU referendum.

 Conservatives UK referendumThe May UK election will be one of the most uncertain in modern history. All options are on the table from majority Labour or Conservative governments to any combination of smaller parties in between. Here are some of the more or less likely outcomes and a suggestion as to whether they would pass an EU referendum ranging from 96% to 10%!


Probability of referendum
Conservative majority 95% Parliament act used in Lords if Salisbury convention ignored. 1-2 Conservative MPs would vote against.
Conservative / Lib Dem Coalition 90% It would be a deal breaker for Conservative support, if it failed it may lead to fresh elections.
Minority Conservative Government 60%-80% Depending on the arithmetic, the DUP would support, some Labour MPs would support, SNP could however demand a Scottish threshold in return for support
Labour minority 15% A referendum would only happen if a Conservative back bench Bill made it through with the help of Labour and Lib Dem rebels
Labour Lib Dem Coalition 10% Both parties would seek to avoid a referendum unless other states demand treaty change.
Labour Majority 10% Labour would seek to avoid a referendum and the Lib Dems would not back a Conservative private members Bill
Conservative / DUP / UKIP Coalition 96% DUP and UKIP would back a referendum
Labour / SNP / Lib Dem Coalition 10% probability of a pseudo referendum A referendum with a separate qualification for Scotland could be a remote possibility.
This entry was posted in Blog. Bookmark the permalink.