What effect do the different potential UK election outcomes have on the chances of an EU referendum.
The May UK election will be one of the most uncertain in modern history. All options are on the table from majority Labour or Conservative governments to any combination of smaller parties in between. Here are some of the more or less likely outcomes and a suggestion as to whether they would pass an EU referendum ranging from 96% to 10%!
| Probability of referendum | ||
| Conservative majority | 95% | Parliament act used in Lords if Salisbury convention ignored. 1-2 Conservative MPs would vote against. |
| Conservative / Lib Dem Coalition | 90% | It would be a deal breaker for Conservative support, if it failed it may lead to fresh elections. |
| Minority Conservative Government | 60%-80% | Depending on the arithmetic, the DUP would support, some Labour MPs would support, SNP could however demand a Scottish threshold in return for support |
| Labour minority | 15% | A referendum would only happen if a Conservative back bench Bill made it through with the help of Labour and Lib Dem rebels |
| Labour Lib Dem Coalition | 10% | Both parties would seek to avoid a referendum unless other states demand treaty change. |
| Labour Majority | 10% | Labour would seek to avoid a referendum and the Lib Dems would not back a Conservative private members Bill |
| Conservative / DUP / UKIP Coalition | 96% | DUP and UKIP would back a referendum |
| Labour / SNP / Lib Dem Coalition | 10% probability of a pseudo referendum | A referendum with a separate qualification for Scotland could be a remote possibility. |
